2026 World Cup: Netherlands vs Japan Prediction and Preview

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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Netherlands and Japan will face off in the opening match of Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Monday, June 15. With both teams targeting a strong start to their campaigns, the match could play a crucial role in shaping the race for a place in the Round of 16.

Group F also includes Sweden and Tunisia, making every point valuable in the battle for the two knockout-stage spots.

The Netherlands enters the tournament with ambitions of ending its long wait for a first World Cup title. Despite boasting one of the richest histories in international football, the Oranje has never lifted the trophy, having finished as runners-up in 1974, 1978, and 2010.

The 2026 edition marks the Netherlands' 12th World Cup appearance. No nation has finished second more times without winning the tournament. Ronald Koeman's side arrives in the United States with a respectable recent record, having reached the semifinals of UEFA Euro 2024 and the quarterfinals of both the 2022 FIFA World Cup and the UEFA Nations League.

The Dutch will also draw confidence from their impressive World Cup group-stage record. The Oranje has not lost a group-stage match at the tournament since 1994, a streak spanning 16 games. Koeman, who captained the Netherlands at the 1994 World Cup in the United States, now returns to North America as head coach.

However, preparations for the tournament have not been entirely smooth. After an unconvincing qualifying campaign, the Netherlands suffered a surprise defeat to Algeria in a pre-World Cup friendly, ending a 10-match unbeaten run. The Dutch then beat Uzbekistan 2-0 in a closed-door friendly in New York, with Cody Gakpo scoring both goals.

Japan Arrives Full of Confidence

Japan heads into the tournament with growing confidence. The Samurai Blue will make their eighth consecutive World Cup appearance and are currently ranked 18th in the FIFA rankings, just 10 places below the Netherlands.

Although Japan has never progressed beyond the Round of 16, the team has shown significant improvement in recent years. Under head coach Hajime Moriyasu, Japan recorded six consecutive victories in warm-up matches ahead of the tournament, including notable wins over Brazil and England. The team also dominated Asian qualifying.

Japan became the first nation outside the three host countries to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The Samurai Blue scored 54 goals during qualifying—the highest tally among Asian teams—while conceding only three times. Those numbers underline the balance and consistency of a squad led by Takefusa Kubo and several emerging stars.

At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Japan stunned the football world by defeating both Germany and Spain in the group stage before being eliminated by Croatia in a penalty shootout in the Round of 16.

Team News

The Netherlands faces several injury concerns ahead of its Group F opener. According to Sports Mole, first-choice goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen suffered a hip injury in the team's final warm-up match. If he is unavailable, Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper Mark Flekken is expected to start.

In defense, Jurrien Timber was ruled out before the tournament because of injury. The Dutch have also been deprived of several other key players, including Jerdy Schouten, who suffered an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, as well as Matthijs de Ligt and attacking midfielder Xavi Simons.

Despite those setbacks, the Oranje still possesses considerable attacking quality. Koeman is expected to choose between Memphis Depay and Donyell Malen to lead the attack. Depay, the Netherlands' all-time leading scorer, contributed to 12 goals during qualifying, while Malen's impressive form with AS Roma has intensified competition for a starting place.

Japan is also dealing with notable absences. Team captain Wataru Endo recently retired from international football after failing to recover from a foot injury.

Winger Kaoru Mitoma has also been ruled out due to fitness concerns. In his absence, Moriyasu is expected to rely on Takefusa Kubo and Junya Ito to support striker Ayase Ueda. The trio played a major role during qualifying, combining for 33 goals and assists.

Veteran defender Yuto Nagatomo, now 39, is expected to begin the tournament on the bench. If he makes an appearance, he could become the first Asian player to feature in five different World Cup tournaments.

Head-to-Head Record

The Netherlands holds the advantage in previous meetings between the two nations. In three encounters, the Dutch have recorded two wins and one draw.

The teams also met at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, where the Netherlands secured a 1-0 victory in the group stage.

Their most recent meeting came in a friendly match in November 2013, which ended in a 2-2 draw. At the time, Japan was Asia's highest-ranked team and 18th in the world, while the Netherlands occupied eighth place in the FIFA rankings.

Predicted Lineups

Netherlands: Bart Verbruggen; Denzel Dumfries, Jean-Paul van Hecke, Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven; Frenkie de Jong, Ryan Gravenberch; Crysencio Summerville, Tijjani Reijnders, Cody Gakpo; Memphis Depay.

Coach: Ronald Koeman.

Japan: Zion Suzuki; Shogo Taniguchi, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Hiroki Ito; Ritsu Doan, Daichi Kamada, Ao Tanaka, Keito Nakamura; Junya Ito, Takefusa Kubo; Ayase Ueda.

Coach: Hajime Moriyasu.

Prediction

The Netherlands enters the match as the favorite based on its stronger World Cup pedigree and superior head-to-head record. However, Japan's performances in recent years suggest the Samurai Blue are fully capable of causing an upset.

With a dynamic style of play, strong organization, and growing confidence, Japan is expected to provide a stern test for the Oranje. Given the quality of both teams and the importance of avoiding defeat in the opening match, a draw appears to be a realistic outcome.

Prediction: Netherlands 1-1 Japan.

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