TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A piece of content claiming that Indonesia's success in achieving rice self-sufficiency caused global rice prices to fall was uploaded to TikTok [archive], Facebook, and YouTube. Global rice prices are said to have fallen 42 percent after Minister of Agriculture Amran Sulaiman successfully achieved rice self-sufficiency in Indonesia and exported rice to Africa.
The content features a collage of photos of President Prabowo Subianto and Amran Sulaiman with the title “Global rice prices plummet 42 percent because of Indonesia.” “Africa is grateful as Indonesian rice is being snapped up. The global food crisis is peaking, and Indonesia is helping African countries by sending thousands of tons of rice,” reads the narrative included in the content.
Tempo verified two things. First, is it true that world rice prices have plummeted because Indonesia is self-sufficient in food? Second, is it true that Africa imports all of its rice from Indonesia?
FACT CHECKING
Tempo verified this claim by tracing credible news sources, open data, and interviews with agricultural experts. The results show that the decline in world rice prices is not due to Indonesia's role. In addition, Indonesia does not export thousands of tons of rice to the African continent.
Claim 1: Is it true that global rice prices have plummeted because of Indonesia?
Professor Dwi Andreas from the Faculty of Agriculture at IPB University explained that until 2024, Indonesia is still listed as one of the rice importing countries, accounting for an average of around 3 percent of the global market. Indonesia's highest import figure was in 2024 at 7.5%.
However, Indonesia's import figures are relatively small in the international rice market and therefore do not significantly affect global prices. “Does this figure have an effect on global rice prices? The answer is no,” he told Tempo on November 19, 2025.
According to Statista data, Indonesia is not among the top 10 rice exporting countries in the world. Instead, Indonesia is among the 25 largest rice importing countries, primarily importing specialty rice with volumes ranging from 200,000 to 500,000 tons per year.
Meanwhile, according to BPS data, government rice imports for consumption occurred in 2014 (844,000 tons), 2015 (862,000 tons), 2016 (1.3 million tons), 2018 (2.25 million tons), 2023 (3.06 million tons), and 2024 (4.52 million tons).
Based on a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture in September 2025, the decline in world rice prices was caused by a combination of oversupply in the global market and weakening demand from major importers.
The increase in global rice stocks was driven by accumulation in major exporting countries such as India and Pakistan. Similarly, production increased in other producing countries such as Brazil and Colombia.
Global export prices have continued to decline since India lifted its ban on rice exports in September 2024. As one of the largest exporters, India's return to the market has made the global market highly competitive and pushed prices down.
The Philippines, as a major global importer, also announced a 60-day import ban starting September 1, 2025. As a result, global demand has fallen dramatically in the short term. This policy was introduced because import prices had become too cheap, which hurt local farmers' selling prices.
The same report also mentions that global rice consumption is expected to decline, particularly in countries such as Burma and the United States. This factor reduces demand pressure on existing stocks.
According to Andreas, fluctuations in world rice prices are largely influenced by a country's import volume, world rice production, and the amount traded on the international market. “When global production increases and the amount traded also increases, rice prices tend to fall,” he said.
Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also shows an increase in global rice production from 523.6 million tons in the 2023-2024 period to 541.5 million tons (2024-2025). USDA data shows that rice traded increased from 54.2 million tons (2023) to 59.9 million tons (2024). The amount of rice traded is estimated to rise to 61.1 million tons in 2025.
Claim 2: Is it true that Africa imports all of its rice from Indonesia?
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) notes that Indonesia has started exporting rice abroad. However, the amount is only 60 kilograms as of April 2025. These rice exports are not to Africa.
As reported by CNBC Indonesia, Deputy Head of Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS Pudji Ismartini said that the volume of rice exports as of April 2025 was destined for a number of countries, namely the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, and the Netherlands. The value was US$ 175.4.
Rice consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa has grown significantly over the past 15 years due to population growth, urbanization, and a shift in dietary patterns towards rice as a staple food. According to the USDA's World Wheat Trade and Markets report, India is the largest supplier to this region, supplying milled white rice and parboiled rice at competitive prices.
Other countries such as South Africa imported rice from Thailand, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam in 2024. Meanwhile, Botswana imported rice from India, Thailand, China, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates in 2022-2023.
CONCLUSION
Based on Tempo's findings, the claim that global rice prices have plummeted because Indonesia and Africa depend on rice imports from Indonesia is false.
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