August 13, 2026 | 01:06 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) has warned communities across East Java to prepare for a strong El Nino, which could bring lower rainfall and increase the risk of forest and land fires.
The warning comes as a wildfire has swept through the Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park in East Java, with authorities closing Mount Bromo to tourists as they work to contain the blaze.
BMKG East Java Climatology Station forecaster Linda Fitrotul said Thursday that indicators pointed to a strong El Nino, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region of the eastern Pacific exceeding 2 degrees Celsius.
“The impacts to watch for include reduced rainfall and a drier-than-usual dry season, which could result in longer periods without rain, a higher risk of drought, reduced water availability for agriculture and household needs, and a greater risk of forest and land fires,” Linda said in Malang Regency, as quoted by Antara.
El Nino, Positive IOD Could Intensify Dry Conditions
Linda said the El Nino was occurring alongside sea surface temperature anomalies in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, reflected in a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index of 0.63.
The positive IOD indicates that moisture is tending to move from western Indonesia toward the eastern coast of Africa, she said.
The combination of the El Nino and positive IOD conditions could make Indonesia’s dry season drier than normal, according to Linda.
East Java Dry Season Expected Into Early 2027
BMKG’s East Java Climatology Station estimates that the province’s dry season will continue until early 2027.
The agency has urged residents to avoid activities that could trigger forest and land fires, including carelessly discarding cigarette butts and burning household waste.
Residents have also been advised against using fire to clear agricultural land, plantations or other areas.
“We also urge the public to use water wisely,” Linda said.
The warning comes as prolonged dry conditions could put additional pressure on water supplies and agriculture while increasing the risk of fires across the province.
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