TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Oil prices could surge to $130 per barrel if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report published by Turkish newspaper Hurriyet on Monday, June 16, 2025, as cited by Antara News.
This warning comes after Esmail Kowsari, a member of Iran’s Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on Saturday that Tehran is considering shutting the strait in response to Israel’s recent attacks.
“Our hands are wide open when it comes to punishing the enemy, and the military response was only part of our overall response,” said Kowsari, who also serves as a military commander, as reported by Euronews.
Iran’s short and medium-range missiles are believed to be capable of striking oil infrastructure, pipelines, and even commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Its surface-to-surface missiles could also be used to target oil tankers or port facilities along the strait.
In addition, aerial attacks using aircraft and drones could disable radar systems or navigation equipment at key shipping ports in the region. Unmanned aerial vehicles, including Iran’s Shahed model, may be deployed to strike specific targets along shipping routes or vital infrastructure.
Iran might also attempt to send warships to physically block access to the strait. In 2012, Iran demonstrated its cyber capabilities by launching an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil sector.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial maritime passage, responsible for 20 percent of global oil shipments and 80 percent of the oil and LNG trade from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The newspaper noted that the outcome of the Israel-Iran conflict could significantly affect the global economy, depending on how long the conflict lasts and how much it escalates. While a prolonged war would have devastating economic effects, if it ends within 14 days as projected, the impact would be more limited.
The Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, before connecting to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Iran controls the coastal area of the strait, while the southern part belongs to Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
An estimated 10 to 20 percent of the world’s oil and about 20 percent of LNG shipments pass through the strait.
On the early morning of Friday, June 13, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a large-scale operation called Rising Lion. The Israeli Air Force struck multiple targets associated with Iran’s nuclear program.
These coordinated airstrikes occurred across several regions, including Tehran. Among those reported killed were senior Iranian officials such as the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, a senior IRGC commander, and several nuclear scientists.
Facilities in Natanz and Fordow, along with military installations across the country, were also hit.
In a public address, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the attack and warned that Israel would suffer a “bitter and horrendous fate.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later announced that Iran had launched Operation True Promise III in retaliation, targeting Israeli military sites.
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