TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Senior Expert Researcher at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Widodo Setiyo Pranowo, stated that early signals of upwelling have emerged in the southern waters of Indonesia. This lifting of deep-sea water to the surface often contributes to increased water productivity and potential fishery resources.
Based on oceanographic parameter predictions from June 1-7, 2026, upwelling appears in several Indonesian waters with varying intensities, from weak to moderate, and not yet evenly distributed. The indication of upwelling appears in the southern waters of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sawu Sea, and Timor Sea.
According to Widodo, the prediction of upwelling is based on global model data using satellite results and direct ocean measurements by robotic autonomous floats scattered across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, as well as regional tide gauge stations scattered along the coast of several countries.
Widodo stated that the upwelling process is marked by vertical currents moving upwards from a certain depth in the sea while carrying cooler water masses. "In the currents, there are nutrients such as phosphate, nitrate, silicate, and dissolved iron," he told Tempo on Wednesday, June 10, 2026.
These nutrients are then used by phytoplankton to produce more biomass by utilizing the chlorophyll contained in the phytoplankton, assisted by solar energy.
Aside from biomass, dissolved oxygen is also produced. Phytoplankton are then consumed by zooplankton, which are in turn eaten by small fish and then by larger fish. "The fishing industry, including fishermen, potentially benefit first from upwelling," he said.
According to Widodo, the initial occurrence of upwelling is within the normal time frame. The peak period of upwelling usually occurs from July to August. Its condition still needs to be continuously monitored to see if the growth of phytoplankton will be faster or more widespread. "With the existence of El Nino, the time may extend until September or October," he said. On the other hand, there is a potential risk to be aware of when rapid growth occurs for toxic phytoplankton that pose a risk to fish.
According to the BRIN website, the upwelling phenomenon is characterized by a decrease in sea surface temperature, an increase in salinity, the presence of vertical currents upwards, and an increase in chlorophyll concentration. The combination of these factors indicates the lifting of nutrient-rich water masses from the deep layers to the surface exposed to sunlight.
The upwelling phenomenon is a natural process that plays a crucial role in marine ecosystems. When water masses from the deep sea rise to the surface, the carried nutrients stimulate the growth of phytoplankton as the foundation of the marine food chain.
In addition to the southern waters of Indonesia, BRIN has also found indications of increased water productivity in several other regions, including the south-eastern part of the Banda Sea, Arafura Sea, western waters of Sumatra up to the Andaman Sea, and the southern areas from the Makassar Strait to the Flores Sea. Widodo mentioned that the increased productivity in the Arafura Sea may be influenced by the mixing of water masses due to wind and tides in shallow exposed areas.
Meanwhile, several Indonesian waters still do not show significant signs of upwelling. Regions such as the Malacca Strait, Karimata Strait, Java Sea, the southern part of the South China Sea, Halmahera Sea, Celebes Sea, and the waters off the west of Papua up to the east of the Philippines are still dominated by relatively warm waters with low to moderate concentrations of open sea chlorophyll.
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