November 12, 2025 | 05:19 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Bank Indonesia (BI) projects that the rupiah exchange rate in 2026 will be around Rp16,430 per U.S. dollar. This figure is slightly higher than the macroeconomic assumptions in the 2026 State Budget (APBN), which set the exchange rate at Rp16,500 per U.S. dollar.
"The average exchange rate we project is Rp16,430, almost the same as the forecast of Rp16,440," said BI Governor Perry Warjiyo during a working meeting with the House of Commission XI (DPR) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025.
Perry believes the projection remains realistic because global uncertainty is expected to remain high next year, particularly given the potential outflow of foreign capital. He said that BI will continue to maintain rupiah stability through various market interventions.
"We continue to strive to maintain exchange rate stability with interventions in various instruments," he said.
He explained that intervention steps are being taken in several markets, including the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, the domestic non-deliverable forward (DNDF) market, and the spot market. According to him, this stabilization policy has led to a decrease in the national foreign exchange reserves.
He continued, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, which reached US$155.7 billion at the end of 2024, decreased to US$148.7 billion in October 2025. Nevertheless, BI continues to strive to keep the rupiah exchange rate around Rp16,000 per U.S. dollar.
Throughout 2025, the rupiah exchange rate moved quite fluctuatively. BI recorded the average exchange rate at Rp16,347 per U.S. dollar in the first quarter, rising to Rp16,496 in the second quarter, and strengthening again to Rp16,365 in the third quarter. Until the end of October 2025, the average exchange rate in the fourth quarter was recorded at Rp16,630 per US dollar.
Perry added that not all forms of BI intervention directly erode the foreign exchange reserves. This consistent stabilization step, said Perry, is part of BI's strategy to maintain market confidence and strengthen the national economic foundation amid ongoing global pressures.
"Foreign exchange reserves decreased because cash interventions were carried out in the spot market," he said.
Anastasya Lavenia Yudi contributed to this article
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