TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati presented Indonesia’s 2026 economic growth target, which exceeds the goal set for this year. Several key indicators from the 2026 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget Macro Economic Framework and Fiscal Policy Highlights (KEM-PPKF) were submitted to the House of Representatives today.
She noted that the 2026 growth outlook will be shaped by ongoing global dynamics, with potential disruptions and uncertainties ahead.
"We project 2026 economic growth to be in the range of 5.2 percent to 5.8 percent while maintaining the purchasing power of the society," she said during a plenary session at the House of Representatives on Monday, May 20, 2025.
According to Sri, this target forms the groundwork for realizing President Prabowo Subianto's longer-term economic aspirations.
"This growth rate will serve as a strong foundation for achieving an 8 percent growth in the coming years," she added.
Beyond GDP growth, she also detailed other fiscal and macroeconomic targets. The 2026 budget deficit is projected to range from 2.48 percent to 2.53 percent of GDP. The exchange rate of the rupiah is expected to be between 16,500 and 16,900 per U.S. dollar.
The 10-year SBN (government bonds) interest rate is forecast to be between 6.6 percent and 7.2 percent.
"Inflation is projected to be in the range of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent while maintaining price stability from both the supply and demand sides," she said.
For commodities, the price of Indonesian crude oil in 2026 is forecast between US$60 and US$80 per barrel. Oil lifting is expected at 600,000 to 605,000 barrels per day, while gas lifting is projected at 953,000 to 1,017,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Sri emphasized that fiscal policy will remain focused on driving economic growth, enhancing public welfare, and reducing poverty. The poverty rate in 2026 is targeted to fall within the 6.5 to 7.5 percent range.
Unemployment is expected to decline to between 4.44 percent and 4.96 percent. The Gini ratio is projected to improve to between 0.377 and 0.38 in 2025 and between 0.379 and 0.382 in 2026. The human capital index is targeted to rise to 0.57.
Editor's Choice: Global Institutions Predict Indonesia's 2025 Economic Growth May Fall Below 5%
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