September 23, 2026 | 10:11 am
There are signs that Prabowo and Jokowi could part ways in the 2029 General Election. An alternative candidate is needed to counterbalance the two.
THE rift between President Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo opens up possible scenarios for the 2029 General Election. Their alliance is bad for healthy politics. But a contest between the two would also be unhealthy for democracy. An alternative figure with a proven and commendable track record is needed to counterbalance or even defeat them.
In an interview with Tempo, Jokowi said he would have no issue if Prabowo abandoned him in the race for the presidency in 2029. If that happens, Jokowi will almost certainly back his eldest son, Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as either a presidential or vice-presidential candidate.
Jokowi appears unconcerned by the label “constitutional bastard” attached to his son. Gibran was able to become a vice-presidential candidate after the Constitutional Court, then led by his uncle, Anwar Usman, changed the minimum age requirement for presidential and vice-presidential candidates to 40. The Prabowo-Gibran victory was also inseparable from the mobilization of state institutions to encourage voters to support them.
With Prabowo’s popularity plunging, Jokowi is confident about Gibran’s popularity. He continues to make blusukan—impromptu visits—to various places, ostensibly to inspect disaster sites or on tours as a former president or Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI).
Surveys by several polling institutions have indeed shown that public satisfaction, or Prabowo’s approval rating, is below 50 percent. His electability is even below 30 percent. It would be difficult for Prabowo and his supporters to boost his electability and approval rating quickly.
The various claims of success in programs and policies that he has made have often backfired and failed to match the facts. Without drastic changes, Prabowo’s chances of winning the 2029 General Election will continue to erode. In a corner, he could imitate Jokowi by mobilizing law enforcement agencies to pressure political opponents and steer voters’ choices.
The problem is that the strongest politician capable of challenging his popularity is Dedi Mulyadi. The West Java Governor’s electability is twice that of Prabowo. Dedi’s image as a “content governor” has made him popular among the lower-middle class. The public sees Dedi as a “new Jokowi” because he entered the political arena by leveraging instant popularity on social media.
Beyond Dedi Mulyadi, Prabowo, and Gibran, opportunities for other politicians to challenge Prabowo have been opened by the Constitutional Court. The justices struck down the presidential threshold, allowing small parties without seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) to nominate credible candidates. The condition is that Prabowo and his supporting parties in the House do not maneuver to circumvent the Constitutional Court’s ruling through revisions to the General Election Law.
So far, politicians have informally agreed to raise the parliamentary threshold from 4 to 5 percent. Parties that fail to win at least that share of the vote will not have seats in the DPR. They may also seek to circumvent the court’s ruling by creating a presidential threshold that would allow the leaders of major parties to become presidential candidates.
If that happens, the political contest in 2029 will return to the status quo. Prabowo could sail through as the sole presidential candidate, without an alternative candidate capable of counterbalancing him.
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