TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Funeral ceremonies for Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are due to begin in Tehran on Saturday, July 4, more than four months after he was killed in the opening phase of the Iran war.
Iranian officials have presented the rites as a national and religious event, with ceremonies planned in Tehran, Qom, Iraq and finally Mashhad, where he is scheduled to be buried on July 9.
State-linked organizers have spoken of urban crowd corridors, large accommodation capacity and the participation of huge numbers of people from inside and outside the country. Some official estimates have suggested that the turnout could reach into the tens of millions, although such projections remain impossible to verify in advance.
The timing of the funeral has also prompted discussion among religious commentators, as under Shiite Islamic tradition, burial generally takes place soon after death.
Vahid Heroabadi, a former Shiite cleric living in Europe and a critic of the Islamic Republic, told DW that the delay conflicts with established religious practice.
"In Islamic jurisprudence, there is a strong emphasis on burying the dead without delay," he said. "So much so that this is one of the classic examples used in religious education when explaining an obligation that must be carried out immediately."
As preparations continue, one question remains unanswered: whether Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as Iran's supreme leader, will attend.
Where is Mojtaba Khamenei?
Iranian officials have not confirmed whether Mojtaba Khamenei will appear at any stage of the funeral ceremonies.
Ali Akbar Pourjamshidian, head of Iran's national funeral and farewell committee for the leader of the Islamic Revolution, said on July 1 that Mojtaba Khamenei's attendance was outside the authority of the organizing committee. He said any announcement would come from the office of the commander-in-chief and the office of the leader.
Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly for months. His absence from several events linked to members of his family has attracted attention in Iran and abroad.
Among them was the symbolic funeral ceremony held for his wife, Zahra Haddad Adel, at which no audio or video message from him was released.
In recent months, reports concerning Mojtaba Khamenei's health have circulated in Iranian and international media. Iranian authorities have not publicly explained his absence, and claims regarding his medical condition have not been independently verified.
Officials have reported that Mojtaba Khamenei was injured in the same strike that killed his father.
Whether he attends the funeral may also affect who will lead the funeral prayer. In Shiite tradition, the individual who leads the prayer for a deceased senior religious figure holds symbolic importance. Iranian authorities have not announced who will perform that role during the ceremonies.
Will Iran continue to 'look east'?
The funeral is also expected to bring together official delegations from a number of countries.
Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni has said presidents, parliamentary speakers, prime ministers and ministers are among those expected to attend. Iranian officials say representatives from dozens of countries have expressed readiness to participate.
Reuters reported that India plans to send a high-level delegation and that Iran expects official participation from more than 30 countries.
For some analysts, the guest list will matter as much as the crowds. Presence, absence and level of representation may all be read as political signals about where Tehran stands after war and succession.
Ahmad Vakhshiteh, a senior lecturer at RUDN University in Moscow, told DW that Ali Khamenei played a significant role in strengthening relations between Iran and Russia in his opposition to the United States and his broader "Look East" policy.
At the same time, Vakhshiteh said he does not expect major changes in bilateral relations following Khamenei's death.
"I believe that the future of Iran–Russia relations will depend on what strategy the new power structure in Tehran adopts toward the West, the economy, and regional security," he added.
Questions surrounding leadership transition remain
Ali Khamenei served as Iran's supreme leader for more than three decades and held a central position in the country's political and security system.
Analysts differ in their assessments of what the transition may mean for the future of the Islamic Republic.
Heroabadi said he expects political differences within the system to become more visible over time.
"The remnants of the Islamic Republic will naturally analyze events and act according to what they learned from Khamenei during the last decade of his rule," he said.
However, Heroabadi thinks that the assassination and the leadership transition "could provide the basis for a period of redefinition in the domestic balance of power and, consequently, in the country's external relations."
Vakhshiteh, by contrast, said the state's institutions have shown continuity and are likely to maintain key policies.
"It should be noted that following the assassination, the United States, and Israel in particular, expected the Islamic Republic to face collapse and regime change," said Vakhshiteh.
"However, it became clear that, contrary to expectations, the Islamic Republic is more system-oriented than personality-driven and was able to preserve its political continuity," he added.
Read: Iran: Dignitaries Arrive for Ayatollah Khamenei's Funeral
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