TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Association of Indonesian Energy, Mineral, and Coal Suppliers (Aspebindo) is confident that the demand for Indonesian coal will improve despite facing global market fluctuations and geopolitical dynamics.
According to Aspebindo's vice chair, Fathul Nugroho, export performance remains relatively stable and is expecting growth during this year's later half, especially from major markets such as China and India. The demand, he said, will grow following positive economic prospects in these main destination countries.
Fathul said the Indian steel and textile industries are expected to grow by 8 to 9 percent and 14 percent, respectively, this year. Meanwhile, China recorded 5.4 percent economic growth in the first quarter of 2025.
"This growth exceeds market expectations," he said in a written message to Tempo on Friday, May 23, 2025.
Although the price of Asian thermal coal briefly plummeted to the lowest level in the past five years, at US$48.23 per ton for 4,200 kcal/kg GAR in May 2025, Aspebindo estimates that Indonesian coal exports will still grow by 5 to 8 percent throughout 2025.
"Demand from China and India will soon improve in the second quarter as their industrial sectors recover," he said.
According to data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources through the MODI system, Indonesian coal export volume in January-April 2025 amounted to 127.52 million tons, slightly up from the same period last year at 127.31 million tons. Fathul mentioned that these figures indicate the resilience of the national coal industry despite pressure from new policies and international market dynamics.
"Aspebindo regrets the inaccurate report of the Indonesian coal industry falling by 20 million tons earlier this year, as it could create a negative perception in the global market and lower prices," he said.
Fathul admitted that the coal exports growth earlier this year was insignificant due to market adjustments to several new policies in the mineral and coal sector.
To maintain momentum, Fathul also encouraged market diversification to developing countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, where energy demand is predicted to grow by 8 to 10 percent this year.
Additionally, he emphasized the importance of strengthening cooperation with Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines and Thailand to maintain regional demand balance.
"Demand from neighboring countries must be strengthened to balance the demand from India and China," he said.
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