How the Iran-Israel Ceasefire Affects Global Oil Prices

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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - After the NATO leaders' summit in The Hague, United States President Donald Trump announced in a press conference that the conflict between Iran and Israel has come to an end and is unlikely to resume. Has a permanent ceasefire been achieved?

"Because I dealt with both, and they're both tired, exhausted. They fought very, very hard and very viciously, very violently, and they were both satisfied to go home and get out," Trump said during a press conference on Wednesday, June 26.

Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire, while Israel deployed 52 aircraft but was called off. Trump commended the ceasefire as a significant achievement and emphasized that it prevented a prolonged war that could devastate the Middle East.

However, the ceasefire remains fragile, with ongoing allegations of violations from both sides and continued vigilance by Iranian forces.

Israel accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire by launching missile attacks before and shortly after the ceasefire took effect, resulting in civilian casualties and threatening the agreement. However, Iran denies the allegations and claims that Israel violated the ceasefire first.

When U.S. President Trump declared a "complete and total ceasefire" as the end of the "12-day war" on Tuesday, June 24, 2025, crude oil prices dropped as concerns over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz eased.

As reported in Euro News, the international standard Brent crude oil dropped 3.83% to $68.74, while WTI dropped 3.85% to $65.87. Last week, Brent reached over $78 per barrel, a level not seen since early 2025.

Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Yuliot Tanjung also mentioned the gradual decline in global oil prices since the ceasefire announced between Iran and Israel. "We see a gradual drop in oil prices," Yuliot said in Bojonegoro, East Java, as quoted from Antara, Thursday, June 26, 2025.

Despite the decline, Yuliot said the government continues to monitor the geopolitical developments in the Middle East as they would affect oil distribution routes and prices. "So, for shipping, we are still paying attention to the security in the Middle East. Yesterday there was a closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran," he said.

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia expressed on Wednesday the intention to hold a meeting with the state-owned oil company Pertamina to discuss the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on Indonesia's energy resilience, especially oil prices.

The main global dynamics related to the Strait of Hormuz must be calculated as about 20% of the world's oil logistics routes pass through the strait. However, Bahlil said the regional tensions signal the necessity for Indonesia to increase oil and natural gas lifting domestically to maintain energy resilience amid geopolitical turmoil.

Ida Rosdalina and Antara contributed to this article.

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