Early Wildfire Risk Rings Alarm as Extreme El Nino Looms Over Indonesia

2 hours ago 1

April 11, 2026 | 07:48 pm

Personnel from Manggala Agni Daops Sumatera IV Pekanbaru to extinguish a peatland fire in Rimbo Panjang village, Kampar regency, Riau province, Feb. 12, 2026. Antara/Rony Muharrman

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Wildfire hot spots are growing across some parts of Indonesia, yet the feared extreme El Nino phase, known as "Godzilla El Nino," has not come knocking at the country's door as expected. The Pantau Gambut organization recorded a total of 23,546 hot spots detected near peatland areas since early 2026.

The notable surge is evident if compared to data from December 2025, where only 141 hot spots were recorded. January and February each saw 5,114 hot spots, before it peaked in March with 12,942 wildfire hot spots.

These hot spots are predominantly distributed in the Protected Peat Ecosystem Functions (FEG) area, with 15,424 hot spots, while the cultivation FEG recorded 8,122 hot spots.

This raised a blaring alarm as protected areas in general have deeper peat layers, which could potentially release more carbon emissions when burned.

In terms of the regions, Riau Province recorded the highest number of hot spots with 8,930, followed by West Kalimantan with 8,842. Meanwhile, Aceh recorded 1,975 hot spots, West Sumatra 533 hot spots, and Central Sulawesi 526 hot spots.

"This indicates that regions with extensive peatlands in Sumatra and Kalimantan remain the epicenter of wildfire vulnerability," said Pantau Gambut campaigner Putra Saptian on Friday, April 10, 2026.

Other findings signal a land management irony, with a concerning 6,192 wildfire hot spots detected across licensed oil palm plantations, while another 1,334 hot spots were in the forest utilization business permit (IUPHHK) area.

This, Putra said, indicated that legal permits could not fully guarantee wildfire-risk-free land management, which unveiled a serious gap between regulations and on-site implementation. 

Putra emphasized the importance of restoration oversight based on Peatland Hydrological Units (KHG) to ensure that permit holders cover all ecological impacts caused by their operations.

"Both inside and outside of concession boundaries," he said.

The extreme El Nino threat, Putra went on, shall push the Indonesian government to improve the regulatory framework to protect peat ecosystems, integrating KHG to integrate spatial planning, licensing, and law enforcement across the country.

"Without a holistic regulation, overlapping interests will continue to worsen long-term ecological and fiscal risks," said Putra.

The growing wildfire hot spots this early in the year must also serve as an early warning sign. "If not anticipated, a combination of dry peat conditions and weak oversight could trigger a wider wildfires crisis, while also dampening national climate and economic resilience," he said.

Read: Why Is It Still Raining in Indonesia Amid a 'Godzilla' El Nino Threat?

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