December 23, 2025 | 10:07 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has forecast that the country’s climate conditions in 2026 will be more favorable than in recent years, based on developments in key global climate indicators in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said the Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing a weak La Niña phase, which is expected to persist into early 2026. He noted that both El Niño and La Niña events typically end in the final quarter of a year.
“We expect the ongoing weak La Niña episode to end by the end of the first quarter of 2026,” Ardhasena said during the Climate Outlook 2026 briefing, which was broadcast online on Tuesday, December 23, 2025.
Following the end of La Niña, BMKG projects that the Pacific Ocean’s El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return to neutral conditions from March through May 2026 and remain neutral for the rest of the year.
“In March, April, and May, ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean are expected to shift to neutral and stay that way until the end of 2026,” Ardhasena said.
BMKG also expects the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to remain in a neutral phase throughout 2026. Neutral IOD conditions generally support stable weather patterns and can contribute to increased rainfall across parts of Indonesia.
Based on these oceanic conditions, BMKG forecasts that Indonesia’s average annual temperatures in 2026 will remain within the normal range observed in recent years. Nationwide, average temperatures are expected to range between 25 and 29 degrees Celsius.
Cooler temperatures are forecast for highland regions, including the Bukit Barisan range in Sumatra, the Latimojong Mountains in Sulawesi, and the Jayawijaya Mountains in Papua, where average temperatures are expected to range between 19 and 22 degrees Celsius.
Meanwhile, some regions are projected to experience relatively higher average temperatures, exceeding 28 degrees Celsius. These areas include parts of southern Sumatra, East and Central Kalimantan, northern coastal regions of Java, and several areas in South Papua.
Overall, BMKG said Indonesia’s national average temperature in 2026 is expected to remain within the range seen in recent years, adding that the year is unlikely to be as hot as 2024.
Read: BMKG: No Increased Rainfall as Cyclone Seed 93S Moves Away from Indonesia
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