November 13, 2025 | 03:56 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Bank Indonesia (BI) has projected that Indonesia’s economy will grow by 5.33 percent in 2026, slightly below the government’s target of 5.4 percent.
The projection was presented by BI Governor Perry Warjiyo during a working meeting with Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025.
“For 2026, our estimate for economic growth stands at 5.33 percent,” Perry said.
According to Perry, the forecast already factors in the global economic slowdown and its impact on Indonesia’s major trading partners. It also reflects BI’s policy direction aimed at stimulating domestic growth, including the potential reduction of benchmark interest rates.
Perry noted that there is still room for further rate cuts next year. In addition, BI plans to expand monetary liquidity, provide macroprudential liquidity incentives, and continue bond purchases in the secondary market as part of its efforts to support growth.
The government, meanwhile, maintains its 5.4 percent growth target for 2026. Perry said BI believes this goal remains attainable, depending on how quickly and effectively fiscal stimulus from the state budget (APBN) can be disbursed.
“If fiscal spending can be accelerated, economic growth may reach 5.4 percent as targeted in the APBN,” he explained.
Beyond growth, BI also expects inflation to remain stable at around 2.62 percent in 2026, within the central bank’s target range of 2.5 percent plus or minus one percent. The rupiah exchange rate is projected to hover around Rp16,430 per U.S. dollar next year.
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