November 28, 2025 | 12:13 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A team of researchers from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA) recently discovered a new tropical climate pattern that had gone unidentified until now. They named this oscillation, a recurring, rotating motion, the tropic-wide intraseasonal oscillation (TWISO) because it covers nearly the entire tropical belt.
According to a report published by Earth on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, based on reanalyzed decades of satellite data, TWISO emerged on rainfall patterns, cloud cover, wind, and temperature. The researchers also used products such as ERA5, a reanalysis that reconstructs global weather since 1940, and NASA's Earth Radiation System, CERES.
Jiawei Bao, one of the team's researchers, said the key characteristics of TWISO are its integration across the tropics and its 30–60-day rhythm. "TWISO is a natural phenomenon that has always been present but it was only recently identified in our paper through analysis of historical observations and reanalysis data," Bao said.
Bao has been glued to China's daily weather forecasts since childhood. He used to scan weather maps from the frigid northeast to the tropical south. He said that in winter, the temperature difference between the two ends of the region can reach about 90 degrees Fahrenheit (about 32 degrees Celsius).
“I was always fascinated by how such variations were predicted,” he said. His curiosity as a climate scientist was rekindled when he co-founded TWISO.
TWISO cycle, he continued, synchronizes changes in the upper atmosphere, sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and the movement of heat and light through the air. One region where this pattern is evident is the western Pacific, extending to Indonesia and Malaysia—an archipelago with some of the warmest waters in the world.
These warm waters trigger massive thunderstorms that connect the ocean and atmosphere in a mutually reinforcing cycle of heat and water vapor. Convection over the archipelago undergoes powerful cycles of strengthening and weakening. "Which play a central role in setting the rhythm for the entire tropical climate system to oscillate together," said Bao.
Large-scale air movements shape storm tracks, rainbands, and dry spells, determining daily weather. Atmospheric circulation is the large-scale movement of air that transfers energy, momentum, and mass from one region to another.
Bao briefly touched on two major patterns in the tropics. First is the Hadley Circulation, which involves air rising near the equator and descending in the subtropics. The Walker Circulation also dominates the Pacific. There, rising air and storms occur in the western Pacific and Southeast Asia, while descending air occurs in the eastern Pacific.
The strength of tropical cyclones changes when these patterns shift. The most well-known example is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs every two to seven years and can trigger severe flooding or drought. Scientists closely monitor this rhythm because it significantly influences extreme weather events.
New Weather Forecast Pattern
Like other oscillations, the TWISO signals a shift from normal climate conditions. This shift can increase the likelihood of extreme weather events. Bao explained that during one phase of the TWISO, sea surface temperatures rise in key regions, creating conditions that are more favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
This finding is significant because weather predictions beyond two weeks remain unreliable. If weather models can track oscillations with a relatively stable 30–60-day rhythm, the forecast window could expand.
"By understanding TWISO, we could improve our ability to predict when tropical cyclones are likely to form, allowing us to issue earlier warnings and help to minimize the risks and damage they cause. We plan to address this in future research," said Bao.
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