November 25, 2025 | 02:37 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The number of Palestinians who have died in the Gaza genocide may be significantly higher than previously estimated, according to a report by the German weekly newspaper ZEIT on Monday, citing Anadolu.
According to calculations by a research team at the prestigious Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock, at least 100,000 people have died or been killed during the conflict, which has lasted for more than two years.
"We will never know the exact number of dead. We are only trying to estimate as accurately as possible what a realistic order of magnitude might be," said Irena Chen, one of the project leaders.
Based on the researchers' calculations, between 99,997 and 125,915 people died or were killed in the Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip during the first two years of the war. The researchers' median estimate is 112,069 people.
The Max Planck scientists employed statistical projections, gathering data from various sources. In addition to data from the Gaza-based Ministry of Health, their study included independent household surveys and death reports gathered from social media.
Currently, the only official source for the death toll is the Ministry of Health in Gaza, which reported 67,173 deaths in the first two years of the conflict.
ZEIT noted there is no evidence of statistical manipulation by the Ministry of Health. On the contrary, various research teams have previously established that the Ministry of Health tends to be conservative in its count.
It is now well documented that more people have died in the genocide than indicated by the official figures, with various studies consistently showing a high number of unreported deaths.
The Ministry of Health in Gaza only tallies confirmed deaths, for instance, individuals possessing a death certificate issued by a hospital.
Because many hospitals were forced to cease routine operations during the conflict, the ministry now also utilizes fatality reports submitted by relatives; a verification panel subsequently assesses this information.
Victims buried beneath the rubble of bombed structures, for example, frequently remain uncounted in official figures.
The Max Planck team leveraged prior findings and calculated specific mortality estimates. They analyzed men and women, alongside various age groups, in distinct categories.
This rigorous approach not only generates a more accurate aggregate figure but also facilitates a detailed differentiation regarding the demographics of those who died.
The precision of death records varies by gender and age; women are less likely to be recorded than men. Official statistics often fail to adequately include fatalities among the population over 60 years old.
According to the researchers' calculations, approximately 27 percent of conflict victims are likely children under 15 years old, with roughly 24 percent being women.
The researchers also projected the conflict's severe impact on life expectancy within the Gaza Strip.
Before the Israeli genocide, life expectancy in Gaza was 77 years for women and 74 years for men. For 2024, demographers projected statistical figures of 46 years for women and 36 years for men. These figures are statistical averages and indicate that if the conflict continues unabated, Palestinians will only reach these average ages. These projections clearly demonstrate the increased mortality risks for civilians residing in the Gaza Strip.
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